Game Preview: University of Northern Iowa, Round 2 of the FCS Playoffs
Since winning in Brookings, UNI finished with wins against Youngstown, USD, Missouri State, and Indiana State with their only loss coming in Fargo to the Bison. They also notched a dominate first round victory over Monmouth, of the Big South Conferene, by a score of 46-7. UNI is certainly playing much better than they were before the first matchup with SDSU; which most UNI fans would associate as the turning point of their season.
Offense
As much as UNI has changed since the first meeting they still do many things the same way. They come in scoring 30 points per game. While performing really well in the red-zone scoring on 44 of 47 attempts. They also convert on 40% of their third downs.
#14 Elli Dunn is a very capable passer. He was injured for the final two regular season games but was effective last week passing for 260 yards and 4 TDs on 18/26 passing. Dunne isn't a super mobile QB but can make a play if needed. He doesn't make a ton of mistakes and really trusts his stable of receivers to make plays. Dunne came into the first matchup with 8 interceptions but has only had 2 since that point.
Running back is the position that maybe most surprised the Jackrabbits in the first matchup. Coming into the game, the leading rushers for UNI were sophomores #25 Trevor Allen and #21 Christian Jegen who are probably more slashers then power backs. However, against the Jacks, UNI deployed power runner #8 Marcus Weymiller rushing him 42 times for 170 yards. Prior to that the junior didn't have a carry on the season. For 2017, Weymiller has rushed for 750 yards and 8 TDs. In addition to his running back duties, Weymiller is also the quarterback in the wildcat formation that UNI will use. In addition to Weymiller, UNI has also called on #34 J'Veyon Browning in recent weeks to run the ball. Last week against Monmouth he ran for 136 yards on just 14 attempts.
The wide receiver/tight end group for UNI is talented but certainly relies heavily on All-MVFC selection #10 Daurice Fountain (63 rec, 915 yards, 11 TDs). Against SDSU he had 4 receptions for 74 yards and a TD. I would fully expect the Jacks All-MVFC selection Jordan Brown to matchup with him wherever he is at on the field. With Brown guarding Fountain in the first matchup, Fountain only had 2 receptions for 30 yards and the TD which was a jump ball type of play.
The other pass-catchers to watch for UNI are #80 Isaiah Weston (22 rec for 380 yards and 5 TDs), #83 Jaylin James (29 for 308 and 1 TD), and tight ends #86 Briley Moore (32 for 404) and #85 Elias Nissen (15 for 186, and 4). Obviously, all are capable and will need to be covered but Fountain is the primary target when UNI chooses to pass.
The offensive line for UNI is the same unit that lined up on Hobo Day. At left tackle UNI starts senior #75 Cal Twait (6-5, 300) who is a 3rd year starter. At left guard the Panthers return sophomore #74 Jackson Scott Brown (6-4, 312) for his second year of starting action. At center #60 Lee Carhart (6-3, 301) has been a part time starter in the past. Right guard #77 Bryce Sweeney (6-5, 323) missed the entire 2016 season due to injury but started all but one game in 2015. The right tackle starter is redshirt freshman #76 Spencer Brown (6-8, 290). This unit did yield 28 sacks and still only rushed for 1466 yards.
Defense
The defense for UNI has continued to be stout, allowing just 22.5 ppg. Since the first matchup against the Jacks, UNI has given up just 15.5 ppg. They are solid against both the pass and the run yielding 234.92 ypg passing and 124.4 ypg rushing. They have also created 20 interceptions and forced 8 fumbles. In the first matchup, turnovers were certainly an important factor. Up until the first matchup, UNI had played strictly a 4-3 defense with end #7 Rickey Neal on the line of scrimmage but at Hobo Day, Neal was up as a 3-4 outside linebacker. This alignment gave the Jacks first half fits as much of the game plan had to be thrown out because of the different alignment. I'm assuming that the Jacks are now preparing for both a 3-4 and a 4-3 defense.
The UNI defense is lead by ALL-MVFC selection #46 Jared Farley. Farley finished the year with 112 tackles, 1 sack, 1 interception, and is just always around the ball. Farley is flanked by #39 Duncan Ferch who has 82 tackles, a sack, and an interception of his own. Against Monmouth, the other linebacker was safety highbred and Wisconsin transfer, #4 Keelon Brookins. Brookings has just 28 tackles on the season but 2 interceptions and 2 sacks including one on Hobo Day.
Upfront, ALL-MVFC selection #99 Adam Reth anchors a strong unit and is lined up opposite of #7 Rickey Neal. The interior is still manned by big bodied #61 Preston Woods and #98 Bryce Douglas (6-0, 287). This group is experienced and is productive. Reth has 71 tackles and 2 sacks on the season while Neal has 46 tackles, and 9.5 sacks (including 1 against SDSU). Woods and Douglas have a respectable 32 and 43 tackles from their interior positions.
The secondary for UNI looks different than it did during the first matchup against SDSU. #1 Elijah Campbell, an All-MVFC selection, has moved from cornerback to free safety, replacing #19 Suni Lane and #23 A.J. Allen (36 tackles, 1 sack) has replaced #36 Korby Sander. Lane and Sander were both inexperienced and were picked on early in the year. It isn't surprising that they were demoted. Campbell, who had the near pick-6 in the first matchup, has been replaced at cornerback by #9 Xavior Williams (26 tackles, 4 INTs) and pairs with #2 Malcolm Washington (57 tackles, 2 INTs) an All-MVFC 2nd team selection.
Special Teams
Everyone who was at the game knows the issues that SDSU had as a unit at Hobo Day. I would not expect UNI to win this matchup again in the playoffs.
UNI has an excellent punter, #92 Sam Kuhter, who averaged 42.55 yards per punt. He had just 1 touchback, forced 23 fair catches, and landed 22 inside the 20. He should have been first team All-MVFC but was instead on the second team.
The place kicking responsibilities belong to #62 Sam Drysdale who went 17-21 on the season with a long of 47. The kick off duties are handled by #58 Austin Errhum who forced 32 touchbacks on 73 attempts with an averaged of 63.4 yards per kick.
Frankly, the kick return of UNI has me worried. #87 Jalen Rima is explosive and he is now joined by #10 Daurice Fountain. #9 Xavior Williams leads the team with 12 returns for 25.42 averaged with a long of 51. All three players have the ability to take it to the house on any kick. The Jackrabbits will have to provide excellent coverage and make the tackle. Rima has only averaged 17 yards per return this season but has shown Jackrabbit fans what he is capable of doing in the past.
Prediction
This game will be a dog fight between two of the top programs in the MVFC. Unlike Hobo Day, weather will not be a factor in this game. The current forecast shows a high of 47 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, and winds SSW 10 to 20 mph. I would be very surprised if this Jackrabbit team isn't jacked up. They have no reason not to be as this team embarrassed them on Hobo Day and likely cost them a top 3 seed. I expect the Jacks offense to come out hot and the defense to continue their run of solid play. Give me the Jacks 34-24.
Show up, bring a friend, and be ready to make some noise.
Go Jacks!
-Matt
Great write up!! I'm less worried about the run backs and probably more about finding the footballs when Chase kicks South! Hope we get the headhunter group out on kick Noah, 7 and the Usual Suspects. Possession O is our friend. Jacks D is up for this.
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