Game Preview: Illinois State
The Redbirds come in fresh off a 27-10 drubbing at the hands of Northern Iowa. UNI dominated in every way in this matchup and I'm sure ISU will be looking to get that bad taste out of its mouth. The Jackrabbits are coming off a big road victory at Missouri State where Keaton Heide secured his first "W" as the starter. Brock Spack is still the head coach at Illinois State and he does a great job. The roster is talented but has battled significant injuries this season on offense. Illinois State's offense loves to run the ball and the defense has been suffocating in the red zone. The Jacks will have to play sharp on both sides of the ball to come away with a victory.
Offense
The Redbirds want to be a balanced offense but injuries to their two starting wide receivers have limited what they have been able to do in the passing game. Still, they come in averaging 150 yards per game through the air. However, their bread is buttered in the running game where they average 173 yards per game behind an All-American caliber tailback and a big offensive line. They convert on 34% of their 3rd down opportunities and score a touchdown on 65% of their trips to the red zone.
The quarterback for ISU is #1 Brady Davis. The senior has completed just 50% of his passes for 1,340 yards and 6 TD against 8 INT. Davis has played a lot of snaps in the last two years but again, without his top two targets has struggled in 2019. Last week against UNI he struggled with their coverage design and was just 13 of 28 for 135 yards and 1 TD to 3 INT. He has only been sacked 14 times but against UNI he was hit 6 different times. Davis is mobile and has run for 230 positive yards and a pair of touchdowns on the season. A few years ago when the Redbirds came to Brookings they made a surprise move at quarterback when they benched their starter and played a true freshman. Could that scenario play out again? If it does, look for true freshman #18 Jack Baltz to be that guy. He has played in two games this season but has attempted just 1 pass. He was a highly regarded recruit and if Spack feels this team needs a jump-start he may get inserted into the lineup.
The running back for ISU is #25 James Robinson (5-10, 220). He was a pre-season All-American by most publications and is nearing the 1,000-yard mark for the second straight season. He has 963 yards and 14 TD. It will take a monumental effort to keep him from eclipsing that mark but that should be the goal/challenge for the defense this week. Robinson isn't a huge threat catching passes out of the backfield but I think it is something the linebackers will have to still be aware of because Robinson out in space is dangerous. On the season he has 9 receptions for 28 yards. The primary backup is #7 Jeff Proctor (5-8, 185) who has 408 yards and 2 TD on 92 attempts. Proctor does have 4 catches on the season including one that went for 40 yards. Robinson is a tough guy for one guy to bring to the ground. The Jackrabbit defense MUST rally tackle and run to the ball. ISU does not use a fullback opting to go with two huge tight ends.
The wide receiver position as mentioned has experienced injuries to their top two players. Both Andrew Edgar and Taylor Grimes played in just four games this season. Between them, they have 25 receptions for 465 yards and 4 TD. That's a lot of production that this offense is missing out on. In their place #15 Kacper Rutkiewicz (5-8, 165) and #13 Braxton Haley (6-2, 195) have stepped up. Ruthkiewicz has 18 receptions for 386 yards while Haley has 18 for 193 yards and 1 TD. #2 Austin Nagel (6-1, 185) has also pitched in with 10 receptions for 104 yards and 1 TD. As I mentioned, ISU starts two tight ends most weeks and they are #81 Tanner Taula (6-6, 245) and #87 Robert Gillum (6-5, 260). Both are good blockers but Gillum is especially devastating. They have a combined 6 receptions for 51 yards on the year.
The offensive line also lost a key contributor to injury. Gabe Megginson was lost early in the year due to a back injury. The starters from left to right against UNI were #71 Drew Himmelman (6-10, 315, JR), #52 Adam Soloman (6-6, 320, SR), #70 Drew Bones (6-4, 335, SO), #75 Jared Rients (6-5, 305, SR), and #67 Cole Anderson (6-4, 285, JR). Again this group has only allowed 14 sacks but they did give up significant pressure to UNI last week and allowed 4 sacks to the Bison. Himmelman has played a ton of snaps for the Redbirds and was named 2nd team All-MVFC last year. Rients and Bones have been part-time starters before moving up this season while Anderson is new to the starting lineup this year. The big addition has been Soloman who is a transfer from Illinois and was a three-star recruit coming out of high school. This should be an interesting test for the #ChainGang.
Defense
The Redbirds, as usual, are pretty good on defense and run a 3-4. They are allowing just 17.8 ppg while surrendering 122 ypg on the ground and 202 ypg through the air. They give up some yards but have been GREAT in the red zone allowing opponents to score on just 57% of their trips. Even more impressive is that they allow a touchdown just 40% of the time. This looks like a group that plays a bend but don't break style of defense. They are also excellent at getting after the quarterback and have amassed 33 sacks this season. Against UNI they gave up 131 yards on the ground and 185 through the air.
The defensive line for ISU is experienced and has good size. #8 Romeo McKnight (6-5, 260), #94 Jason Lewan (6-6, 290), and #99 John Ridgeway (6-6, 325) have played a lot of snaps the last two years for this defense. Ridgeway was a freshman All-American last season and leads this group with 40 tackles, 2 TFL, and a forced fumble from his nose guard position. McKnight is close behind with 38 tackles of his own and a team-leading 8 sacks and 5 additional QBH. Lewan pitches in with 18 tackles, 3 TFL, and 2 sacks. This group is asked to do a lot and doesn't have a ton of depth. #90 Steve Podkulski (6-6, 290) is the primary backup and has 12 tackles, 4 sacks, and 3 QBH.
The linebacking corp is filled with playmakers, it seems like it alway is. #42 Dylan Drake (6-0, 240) is second on the team with 51 stops, 1 sack, 1 INT, and 3 QBH. #40 Ty DeForest (6-0, 250) mans the middle and has 47 tackles, 7 TFL, 2 sacks, 5 QBH, and 1 INT. #47 DeMarco Washington (6-3, 235) has 30 tackles, 3.5 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and 2 PBU. #55 Brandon Simon (6-0, 250) has 27 stops, 5.5 for loss, 3 sacks, 1 INT and 3 additional QBH. #6 Tuvone Clark (6-2, 250) sees significant action and has 32 tackles, 5 TFL, 4 sacks, and 1 INT but didn't play against UNI due to injury. His status is unknown. #31 Aaron Mends (6-0, 230) is another backup who has 31 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, and a sack. #5 Zeke Vandenburgh (6-3, 235) has 27 stops of his own including 1.5 sacks and 3 QBH. Clearly, this is an active group. I think that is what has always impressed me about the ISU defense. They don't have a superstar but they are usually solid across the board.
The leader of the secondary is #14 Luther Kirk (6-2, 195). Kirk is on NFL draft radars because of his size and production. He leads the team with 59 total tackles (including 45 solo), has 1 sack and 6 PBUs. Next to him is #24 Christian Uphoff (6-3, 195) who also has plenty of experience and has 36 tackles of his own along with an INT and 5 PBU. Both Kirk and Uphoff have 3 QBH's so they are clearly involved in the pass rush as well. #23 Clayton Isbell (6-2, 220) has 18 tackles, 2 sacks, and a forced fumble as a reserve safety. #3 Devin Taylor (6-1, 200) and #9 Charles Woods (6-1, 175) man the corner positions for the Redbirds. Taylor has 42 tackles, 2 INT, and 10 PBU while Woods has 25 tackles, 1 INT, and 4 PBU.
Special Teams
Illinois State usually has okay special teams with a dangerous return man. This year they haven't found that return guy but their kicking has been good and their coverage units have been very good. #36 Sam Fenlason has gone 8 for 10 on his field-goal attempts with a long of 38 and misses from 43 and 35. The kickoff duties are handled by #40 Aiden Breshnahan who on 39 attempts has 7 touchbacks and 2 kicks out of bounds. The Redbirds are intentionally kicking short and allow opponents just a 19.1 yards per return average. The punter is #41 JT Bholken and he has a 39.7 ypk average on 55 attempts. He has landed 15 inside the 20 and has forced 19 to be fair caught while having just 4 touchbacks.
#9 Charles Woods (6-1, 175) is handling the punt return duty and has just a 5.2 average on 8 attempts. Reserve running backs #3 Kevin Brown (5-8, 170) and Jeff Proctor handle the kick return duties. Proctor has a 19-yard average and Brown a 21 yard average on just 13 combined returns.
Prediction
This is going to be a physical battle. This Illinois State defense is loaded at the linebacker position, has a stud trio of defensive linemen and is solid in the secondary. I'm nervous about the schemes the ISU coaching staff is cooking up for our freshman quarterback. The Redbirds should be plenty motivated after having the stuffing kicked out of them by UNI. On the flip side, I think the Jackrabbit defense will make life really tough on the Redbird offense. If they can't pass the Jacks will stuff the run. Points will be hard to come by in this one.
Jacks 17
Redbirds 10
Go Jacks!
Matt
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