Game Preview: University of Northern Iowa

The Jacks (7-3, 4-2) are coming off a tough loss and will face the red-hot University of Northern Iowa Panthers (7-3, 4-2).  The Panthers and Jacks have gone back and forth in their head to head matchups the last ten years. The Panthers own a 6-5 advantage in that span with the Jacks winning a 2017 playoff matchup. The Panthers always have a strong defense and typically have a balanced offense that likes to milk the clock.  They are a bit different in 2019 and their offense likes to play with a little more pace and space but their defense is still rock solid.

Offense
The UNI offense comes in averaging 24 ppg. They rush the ball for 111 yards per game and pass for 212.  They haven't controlled the ball like they normally like to do (28:30) and only convert on 32% of their 3rd down attempts.  They are very tough in the red zone scoring 87% of the time but only 52% of those trips are resulting in touchdowns.

The offense this year is being led by the electric redshirt freshman, and former walkon, #13 Will McElvain (5-11, 197).  He has completed 55% of his passes for 2,115 yards and 18 TD to only 3 INT.  In addition, he has 397 positive rushing yards on the season.  The Jacks will need to contain this aspect of his game as he is dangerous with his feet. He has been sacked 20 times.  Something that won't affect this game but is very interesting, UNI signed two quarterbacks who were in the "Top 50 FCS Recruits" in 2018.  McElvain is set to start for the next three years.  What will these two quarterbacks choose to do?  Again, no impact on this game.  I'm just interested to see what happens as a follower of MVFC recruiting.   

The UNI running game has been a bit uneven this season and has had to deal with injuries in recent weeks.  #32 Tyler Hoosman (6-0, 212) leads the team with 380 yards and 4 TD with a 4.2 average but missed last weeks game against Indiana State with an ankle injury.  #25 Trevor Allen (5-10, 210) is finally a senior!  This year he has 378 yards and 2 TD with a 3.8 ypc average.  He is also a threat catching the ball out of the backfield where he has 11 receptions for 80 yards and a TD.  Allen suffered a concussion against Illinois State two weeks ago but was able to go against Indiana State this past weekend.  #33 Nick McCabe (6-0, 215) is a true freshman and has 31 attempts for 81 yards and a TD.

The Panther wide receiver room is paced by #80 Isaiah Weston (6-4, 208) but he left last week's game in the second quarter with a right leg injury and he did not return to the field.  His status at this point is unknown.  He has had a HUGE year where he has 39 receptions for 982 yards and 10 TD.  He has elite speed and has been taking tops of the defense the entire year.  He averages 25 yards per catch!  If he is out, it is a huge hit to the UNI offense.  In the second half last week, UNI only mustered two first downs and 35 total yards.  He was certainly missed.  Opposite him is #83 Jaylin James (6-4, 207) who has had a nice career at UNI.  This season he has 22 receptions for 304 yards and 3 TD.  #37 Aaron Graham (6-0, 201) has moved into the starting lineup as the slot receiver and he has 20 receptions for 248 yards.  Former safety #3 Suni Lane has emerged in recent weeks as a reliable option for McElvain.  He has 6 receptions for 110 yards and 3 TD.  #4 Deion McShane enjoyed a great freshman campaign in 2018 but he was injured against NDSU with a "leg injury" and has not seen the field since.  If available, he is a huge addition as they use him much like the Jacks use Cade and Deyon.  He has terrific speed and is dangerous in the open field.  Special teams ace, Jalen Rima, left the team after four games and is looking to use his redshirt and transfer.

UNI suffered a huge loss in week one when All-American tight end Briley Moore suffered a back injury. Tristan Bohr is also out for the remainder of the season.  That leaves #84 Jayden Scott (6-5, 240) who has filled in admirably but has just two combined receptions for 5 yards.  Replicating the athletism, speed, and power that Moore plays with is hard to do.

The UNI offensive line has been up and down in 2019.  They haven't run blocked great and haven't been great in pass blocking either.  The 20 sacks allowed is more of a credit to the escapability of McElvain than great blocking.  From left to right against Indiana State they went #70 Trevor Penning (6-7, 321, So), #74 Jackson Scott-Brown (6-4, 321, Sr), #73 Mason Neisen (6-5, 317, So), #71 Nick Ellis (6-4, 325, Jr), and #76 Spencer Brown (6-9, 321, Jr).  It feels like Jackson Scott-Brown and Spencer Brown have been playing forever!   Obviously, this is a huge line!  The Jacks will have to rely on their depth to limit the ground game from gaining traction and they will have to be disciplined in their pass rush against McElvain.

Defense
The UNI defense is just as good as ever and holding opponents to 19 ppg.  Opponents are only averaging 116 ypg on the ground and 195 per game through the air.  UNI has registered 30 sacks on the season.  Until the Jacks beat it, I expect UNI to blitz like crazy to stop the run and fluster freshman QB Keaton Heide.  Opponents are controlling the ball and converting on nearly 40% of their 3rd down opportunities.  They have also allowed a score on 24-29 visits in the red zone but only 14 of those have been touchdowns. UNI plays a 3-4 or a 3-3-5 defense.  As we saw two years ago when UNI visited Brookings on Hobo Day, they have the ability to switch it up and confuse an offense. 

UNI's defense is strong all the way through but one of the strongest players in the MVFC is nose guard #44 Jared Brinkman (6-2, 290). He has 60, yes 60, stops on the season including 6 sacks and 5 other TFL.  He is a monster and the Jacks must find a way to contain him.  On either side of him is #16 Elerson Smith (6-7, 245) and #95 Seth Thomas (6-6, 264).  Elerson Smith is a very disruptive player.  He has 47 tackles, 12 sacks, 4.5 additional TFL, 8 more QBH, and 4 forced fumbles.  The Jacks will have to help Aron Johnson and Evan Greeneway with Smith. He is just too good to block one on one.  Thomas has 33 stops of his own including 2.5 sacks, 5 TFL, 7 PBU, and 6 QBH.  UNI also has adequate depth at this position group with the experienced #94 Tim Butcher (6-2, 300) and #91 Brawntate Wells (6-3, 267) as primary backups.  They have 55 tackles combined and 3 sacks.

The Panther linebackers are athletic and not afraid to hit.  The group is led by #48 Chris Kolarevic who has battled injuries off and on the last two seasons but when he is available he is a tackling machine.  This year he has 54 stops and 2 sacks.  #22 Bryce Flater is actually leading the team in tackles with 80 and has 4 TFL, 1 INT, and 1 FF.  The other linebacker is #27 Austin Evans and he has 48 tackles of his own and 2.5 sacks, 2 INT, and 1 FF.  The fourth linebacker plays the UNI "rover" position and it is #8 Spencer Perry and he has 33 tackles and an INT.  It is fun to watch Kolarevic and Flater compete to make plays.  They are tough-nosed, lunch pail type of guys and I appreciate their game. #41 Spencer Cuvelier is a top backup and he has 51 tackles on the season.

The secondary for UNI is lead by the All-MVFC talent #9 Xavior Williams (5-11, 184) and he has 37 tackles and 9 PBU's on the season.  Having watched a few UNI games this season, opponents just aren't throwing at him.  Opposite him is true freshman #24 Omar Brown (6-1, 195).  Brown is actually fourth on the team with 58 tackles but leads the team with 5 INT and has an additional 5 PBU. The safties are #1 Roosevelt Lawrence (6-0, 165) and converted running back #21 Christian Jegen (6-1, 210).  Lawrence has 41 tackles, a sack, and 1 INT while Jegen has 76 tackles, 3 INT and 4 PBU.  #6 Micah Mayberry and #38 Zac Kibby see some action in the secondary but on the season have just a combined 17 tackles.  In terms of depth and talent, this is probably the weakest unit on the UNI defense, hence why they give up nearly 200 yards per game through the air.

Special Teams
In a really strange twist.  UNI used two punters.  The aforementioned defensive back, Zac Kibby has 37 attempts on the season for a 38-yard average. He has a long of 54 and forced 12 to be fair caught, landed 8 inside the 20 and has 2 that have traveled 50+ yards.  #63 Nate Murphy also has 23 attempts on the season with a 39-yard average.  He has 1 TB, 10 fair caught, and 8 inside the 20.  I can't remember a team utilizing 2 punters in a season.  Opponents are averaging 8.59 yards per return on 17 attempts against their coverage team.  There could be an opportunity for Janke to make some magic this week.

The field goal responsibilities belong to #97 Matthew Cook who has converted 15 of 18 and has a long of 50 yards.  Cook also handles the kickoff duties where he holds a 58.5 yard per kick average and has 11 TB on 48 attempts.  He has hit 3 out of bounds.  To me, this looks like UNI is trying to pin its opponents deep through some directional kicking.  The long return against UNI this season is just 35 yards.

With the loss of Jalen Rima and Deion McShane, UNI's return game isn't quite as dangerous as it was entering the season.  However, Xavior Williams is still a threat as the punt returner.  He has a 7.19 average and a long of 28 on 16 attempts.  On kick return, UNI has tried all sorts of guys back there.  Aaron Graham, Nick Phillips, Tyler Hoosman, Trevor Allen and Xavior Williams have all tried their luck but have just a long of 22 yards to show for it.

Prediction
I can see this game going either direction.  I know Farley will have something schemed up to confuse and rattle Heide.  He's a great x's and o's coach.  On the other hand, I don't see UNI being able to move the ball consistently against SDSU's defense.  What I do know is that the SDSU offense can't continue to put the defense in bad situations on short fields.  There simply cannot be turnovers.  I think Coach Eck and Heide will use the loss to Illinois State as a learning game and implement a quick-strike offense.  The run game will gain some traction and the Jacks will come out as winners.

Jacks 21
UNI 13

Go Jacks!
Matt